Wisconsin Green Bay

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	160.0
Current RPI:	160
Expected SOS:	158
Current SOS:	158
Current Record:	17-15
Expected Record:	17-15
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-2
Current OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC Record:	5-8
Expected OOC RPI:	260
Expected OOC SOS:	243

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-15	160.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin Green Bay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	H	72-67	W	100%
11-16	Southern Utah (314.0)	BSky	N	66-54	W	100%
11-17	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	71-69	L	0%
11-18	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	N	93-82	L	0%
11-20	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	A	72-62	L	0%
11-24	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	H	74-59	W	100%
12-1	Virginia (76.0)	ACC	A	67-51	L	0%
12-6	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	A	74-68	L	0%
12-12	Wisconsin (32.0)	B10	A	65-54	L	0%
12-15	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	H	70-72	L	0%
12-19	Marquette (13.0)	BE	H	49-47	W	100%
12-22	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	H	72-55	W	100%
1-3	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	A	64-53	L	0%
1-5	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	A	84-76	L	0%
1-9	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	H	58-45	W	100%
1-12	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	H	53-47	W	100%
1-17	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	H	67-58	W	100%
1-19	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	H	77-50	W	100%
1-23	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	A	73-61	L	0%
1-25	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	A	54-74	W	100%
1-31	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	A	60-57	L	0%
2-2	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	A	65-73	W	100%
2-7	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	H	68-70	L	0%
2-9	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	H	68-59	W	100%
2-15	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	A	59-66	W	100%
2-17	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	A	54-71	W	100%
2-23	Drake (143.0)	MVC	A	71-54	L	0%
2-26	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	H	78-61	W	100%
3-2	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	H	56-75	L	0%
3-5	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	H	62-46	W	100%
3-8	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	N	64-63	W	100%
3-9	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	A	70-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin Green Bay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Wisconsin Green Bay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Wisconsin Green Bay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	26.54	26.54	54.62	54.62	2.45	2.45
Valparaiso	Horz	5.59	5.59	75.86	75.86	2.89	2.89
Illinois Chicago	Horz	5.57	5.57	53.57	53.57	0.40	0.40
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	5.56	5.56	22.22	22.22	-3.09	-3.09
Wright St.	Horz	4.21	4.21	60.00	60.00	0.84	0.84
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.12	4.12	51.85	51.85	0.15	0.15
Loyola Chicago	Horz	4.11	4.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	4.07	4.07	60.71	60.71	0.87	0.87
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.07	4.07	40.74	40.74	-0.75	-0.75
Drake	MVC	1.69	1.69	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.69	1.69	34.62	34.62	-0.52	-0.52
Wisconsin	B10	1.69	1.69	66.67	66.67	0.56	0.56
Chicago St.	GWC	1.69	1.69	25.93	25.93	-0.81	-0.81
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.67	1.67	73.33	73.33	0.78	0.78
Nevada	MWC	1.64	1.64	34.48	34.48	-0.51	-0.51
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.62	1.62	37.93	37.93	-0.39	-0.39
Southern Utah	BSky	1.61	1.61	32.14	32.14	-0.58	-0.58
South Dakota	Sum	1.61	1.61	29.63	29.63	-0.66	-0.66
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.61	1.61	41.38	41.38	-0.28	-0.28
Idaho	WAC	1.61	1.61	35.71	35.71	-0.46	-0.46
Marquette	BE	1.59	1.59	76.67	76.67	0.85	0.85
Virginia	ACC	1.59	1.59	64.52	64.52	0.46	0.46
Western Illinois	Sum	0.29	0.29	71.43	71.43	0.12	0.12
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.28	0.28	13.79	13.79	-0.20	-0.20
Toledo	MAC	0.26	0.26	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.26	0.26	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
IUPUI	Sum	0.26	0.26	13.33	13.33	-0.19	-0.19
New Mexico	MWC	0.23	0.23	85.29	85.29	0.16	0.16
Bowling Green	MAC	0.21	0.21	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.20	0.20	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.20	0.20	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Morehead St.	OVC	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
DePaul	BE	0.18	0.18	34.38	34.38	-0.06	-0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.18	0.18	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.16	0.16	22.58	22.58	-0.09	-0.09
South Florida	BE	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Wichita St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Creighton	MVC	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Miami OH	MAC	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Akron	MAC	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.13	0.13	14.29	14.29	-0.09	-0.09
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.08	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	WAC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	79.31	79.31	0.05	0.05
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01